Sumera B Reshi
In April 2021, President Joe Biden officially announced the drawdown of all remaining 2,500 US troops from Afghanistan from 1st May 2021 till the end of September 2021. Biden after consulting all the stakeholders and partners, diplomats and intelligence officers, decided to end America’s longest war and call American troops home as the US has met its objective with the assassination of Osama bin Laden. Mr Biden believes the US military engagement in Afghanistan has become a strategic obligation and a futile investment and the US needs to focus on its other contenders – mainly Communist China. With the US exit on cards, there is, however, a possibility of an ‘intensified and potentially highly fragmented’ and bloody civil war.
The US and the Taliban signed an agreement on 29th February 2020 (Doha Agreement/Accord) addressing four issues: reducing violence, withdrawing foreign troops, starting intra-Afghan negotiations, and guaranteeing Afghanistan won’t again become a refuge for terrorists. And if this agreement is successfully implemented, sections of the Taliban could play a larger role in Afghan politics, nonetheless, the US-Taliban bonding has unnerved India. Indian assets in Afghanistan have been targeted by the Taliban (Haqqani group). While other neighbours have welcomed the US’s departure, India is a bit shaky and cautious of situations in absence of the US.
Back in 2001, the US wanted to eliminate the threat of terrorism against the United States and its allies. Now that objective has been accomplished and Al-Qaida’s capabilities have been curtailed to a greater extent. According to Vanda Felbab-Brown, director of Initiative on Non-state Armed Actors, bad governance in Afghanistan has undermined the stability and allowed the Taliban to ensconce itself. However, as of now, the Taliban is seen as less destructive and whimsical.
Moreover, the Biden administration views terrorism threats from Afghanistan as trivial compared to threats emanating from various parts of Africa and the Middle East. In Somalia, Al-Shabab’s power is steadily increasing and the group has allegiance to Al-Qaeda. The Islamic State (ISIS) in Somalia is considered weaker in comparison to Al-Shabab but it could pose a threat for the US and its allies in future. Besides Somalia, various other groups associated with Al-Qaeda and ISIS operate in Mali and North Africa. Apart from the Taliban, Al-Qaeda affiliates from different locales of the world could be a threat to the US and its allies.
The US has to tackle an assertive China which according to US analysts is trying to eclipse the US technologically, militarily and economically. The threat from the Taliban in Afghanistan can’t be ruled out completely but the US can use diplomacy, conditional aid and sanctions or in the worst case occasional strike from off-shore if the Taliban doesn’t stick to the Doha Accord 2020. It was a bold step by the Biden administration. There was no justification for the US to stay in Afghanistan. At present, the US has other threats to think through. There are other strategic priorities for the US, like an aggressive
Russia, Iran, North Korea and zoonotic pandemics. The need of an hour is to deal with these countries rather than draining the resources and military prowess in Afghanistan.
As per Brooking’s Institute experts, the deployment of the US troops in Afghanistan won’t change the reality. The reality now is a desirable peace deal with a nominal political representation for the Taliban in national and sub national government. Undoubtedly, the US military presence has decelerated the Taliban’s military and political gains but hasn’t overturned them even when there were 100,000 US troopers on Afghan soil. Therefore, there is no point if 5000 or 10,000 US troops stay right now as they can’t withdraw the Taliban until they make enough strategic mistakes, which they haven’t so far.
Furthermore, the US military withdrawal as per the analyst has rather wavered politicians towards unity against the Taliban and has helped improve governance. Political pundits firmly believe that sustaining US troop’s deployment in Afghanistan until a peace deal is reached would abandon that chances of serious negotiations amidst the ground realities require the Afghan government to concede some amount of power to the Taliban. On the contrary, the Afghan government never wanted to include the Taliban in power-sharing and isn’t interested in negotiating with the Taliban. Thus, as long as the US stays militarily in Afghanistan, there are meagre chances for the Afghan government to be involved in dialogue with the Taliban. With the US withdrawal, there will be both risks and new alliances in making including the Taliban.
Given the fact that the US forces are leaving Afghanistan, its NATO partners are unlikely to stay back. The NATO partners are dependent on the US for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and logistics and once the US heads back home, NATO partners will follow the steps. They shall try to manage to leave Afghanistan in an orderly fashion. There is another dimension to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Once the US withdraws completely from Afghanistan, US policy can move towards more normalization with Pakistan. The US won’t be dependent on Pakistan for ground or air spaces to control Afghanistan. As stated in the Brooking Institute Report, the US dependence on Pakistan has been holding other elements of the US – Pakistan policy hostage, including concerns about tactical nuclear weapons, civil-military relations and democracy.
The situation in Afghanistan doesn’t look rosy. Thousands of Afghans have been killed since the US and its NATO Alliance launched an offensive to eliminate the threat of Al-Qaeda 18 years back. But now the Taliban is also heading to power and there is a probability of further chaos and a significant weakening of political and human rights. Taliban, so far, has objected to elections as they fear they won’t win a majority vote. However, the Taliban backs an Iran-like model of a supreme religious council where the Taliban can have an upper hand and can have a big say over other political and administrative structures where elections can take place.
It is also plausible to say that the Taliban want to integrate its fighters into the Afghan military & intelligence services if until then Afghan security forces can exist. Currently, the Taliban is in control of 12 provincial capitals and now with the US absence, the Taliban can try to control many more. The situation could intensify the existing civil war into a far bloodier, broken and prolonged war like in Syria or Libya. So after the US withdrawal, the situation in Afghanistan could be quite dicey but nothing can be predicted.
While the US and its allies are tired of an 18 years old war and are heading back home, neighbouring India is readying to take an active role in Afghanistan. To date, New Delhi has maintained silence over the Afghan issue other than focusing on developmental works and aiding the Afghan government with military training and infrastructure, it hasn’t been active in the peace process. Since the US is leaving Afghanistan, India wants to chip in and fill the vacuum and it has shown flexibility in directly engaging with the Taliban, which it considers a proxy by Pakistan.
Geopolitical dynamics are changing in Afghanistan especially after the Doha Agreement (29th February 2020). Both Russia and China have accepted the Taliban as a potential force, however, India has maintained a sizable distance. Time and again, India has extended its support for an “Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled” peace process. The reality is that the Taliban is an intrinsic part of Afghanistan and all the stakeholders have to accept this reality. The Doha agreement has given the Taliban leverage and a kind of credibility. The peace talks with other Afghan political parties and the current government in near future would offer the Taliban a legal stake in the Afghan political spaces.
This equation has put India in a dilemma as it sees the Taliban hostile towards India on account of the Taliban’s relationship with Pakistan and deeper ties with militant groups that according to India have engineered attacks on Indian assets in Afghanistan. With the American exit, India risks increased violence and fears the instability that could extend to the Indian Territory. Keeping the current situation in Afghanistan in view, India has to enlarge the ambit of its engagement; else its limited engagement would leave India vulnerable and isolated post-US withdrawal. According to Rakesh Sood, former Indian Ambassador to Afghanistan, the US departure will open a new chapter for India. “India will be pushed out of its comfort zone,” Sood added.
In the past, India has been reluctant to talk to the Taliban directly. However, India can’t ignore the Taliban’s influence. India has a strong reason to establish relations with the Taliban owing to the geopolitical changes within the region. Taliban now is entering into some form of power-sharing engagement with the Afghan government and India can’t shy away from the reality that the Taliban is a contender in Afghanistan. Many analysts believe that India was in contact with the Taliban through backdoor channels since 2006, however, there is a complete denial by India over the backchannel negotiation with the Taliban.
As per the defence analysts, India has shown flexibility in engaging with the Taliban after the US-Taliban 2020 deal. The peace deal with the US has given the Taliban a kind of clout and credibility which no one can ignore. Further, India also wants to take an active role in Afghanistan and counter Pakistan’s influence on Afghan soil. The growing presence of China in Afghanistan is a real worry for India and China has snubbed India in China – Afghanistan – Pakistan trilateral talks in 2015. The overview of the political scenario in Afghanistan proves that both India and the Taliban have shunned some of their animosity. Taliban in early 2020 made it clear that they aren’t interested in waging jihad in Indian administered Kashmir. This softened tone by the Taliban has also softened Indian stubbornness towards the Taliban.
India at present can’t disregard the significance of Afghanistan. From Afghanistan, it can access energy markets in Central Asia. Besides India, Iran and Russia are also reinforcing their ties with the Taliban and India in collaboration with Russia and Iran can counter the influence of China and Pakistan in Afghanistan.
Additionally, India has emerged as the strongest development partner in Afghanistan. It has invested $3 billion for the construction of the parliament building, Salma dam and the Zaranj-Delram highway project. In November 2020, India announced 100 more projects worth $80 million in Afghanistan. India has genuine concerns but then it has to revamp its policies in Afghanistan especially with the Taliban post US withdrawal.
Currently, not only India but the Taliban has to restore ties with India. If the Taliban engages with India, the Taliban is likely to gain greater political and diplomatic legitimacy. So the post-US withdrawal could be a win-win situation for both Taliban and India and the US could take other bad buddies to the task.
