Now, with realities of geopolitical trends dawning, US and China are repositioning themselves amongst traditional allies as also creating new ones. What is not clear is the position that Russia is going to take with respect to US, China, Japan and India.
Conflicts within and between the nations is there to stay as long as the tendencies causing conflicts continue to be nurtured. Globalisation leading to interdependence was reflected by West as the most powerful tool to usher peace, however, same tool has become the cause of vulnerability.
Second factor is the global economic and technological developments that was seen to reduce inequality has further widened the divide between haves and have nots. While middle class shrinks vast majority of people have gone further behind the rich. Thirdly the dramatic weakening of the politico-military-economic structures of West and rise of non-West (Russia, China and India) is mandating a major realignment of old treaties.
The foreign policy document of Russia released as “The Concept” states this need very clearly. Hence traditional partners are changing the playing fields and goal posts. Fourthly, the idea of nationalism is taking back the centre stage among nations and the shift to the right wing politics is evident from the kind of leaders that are emerging. Fifthly, weakening respect for international organisations and international laws is a serious indicator towards the possibility of contradictions taking the shape of major wars in future.
Cold War led to weakening of Russia in 1990s and consequently into Unipolar world where even organisations like UN turned out to be an instruments at the hands of US or NATO. It is this why Yugoslavian bombing, separation of Kosovo, Operation Iraqi Freedom and actions in Afghanistan could not be prevented. These challenges pose serious threats of triggering wars and subsequent participation by host of countries.
Though there are numerous flash points in the world, most critical ones are emerging in the Middle East. Cold War factors such nuclear weapons and huge piles of weapons built and deployed by USA and Russia resisted triggers turning into major conflicts.
This inability to use military force led to manipulation of economic interdependence (say China exploiting trade imbalance to keep Taiwan on track), openness, and human rights preservation and de-liberalised economic relations as geopolitical weapons to counter the adversaries or those challenging their positions. Now, with realities of geopolitical trends dawning, US and China are repositioning themselves amongst traditional allies as also creating new ones.
What is not clear is the position that Russia is going to take with respect to US, China, Japan and India. Another element of confusion is the extent upto which Europe is likely to slide and emergent ultimate stake holding dynamics. Triangle of United States, Russia and China is clearly established. India is surely a future one, with other players as Germany, France, Brazil, South Africa, South Korea and Great Britain. While China and Russia are moving forward, they lack strategic depths and following by nations. Hence, the current race through re-alignments or economic facade like One Belt One Road PR China Pakistan Economic Corridor are the efforts of China in this direction. Similar efforts are on from Russia to buy, win or create new friends.
Are there Solutions?
The solution lies in multiple aspects of international relations and putting into use the positive trends and tendencies. Firstly, the military force has to work with responsible diplomacy to prevent wars. Diplomacy has to proactively manage the contradictions much before they shape into conflicts.
Secondly, information openness has the power to cause or prevent conflicts. Dominant ethical ideologies that stood like a rock against hardcore ideologies and dangerous religious thoughts are fast diminishing. This, combined with the rise in democratisation and consequent gravitation of nations to defend the attitudes of their citizens (or vote bank politics in crude sense) have eroded the difference between right and wrong; have diminished the tendency to sacrifice the short terms gains against long term gains; and tarnish shed the worth of giving up personal gains for cause of the national or global good. Such ideas and thoughts are getting a boost due to information tools that give platforms, anonymity and ability to express with retribution. This needs to be managed.
Thirdly, international relations have to be forged based on common ideologies that are universally applicable, that do not polarise and which do not assert primacy of religion over society or polity. Modernisation was meant to bring about liberal democracy, however conflicts started by USA and the tools of prisons, relief camps and military operations damaged the prospects of such a hope. Result is Taliban, ISIS and a host terror outfits that are simply thriving on exploitation of people’s emotions through violence. Some countries taming and supporting terror while others fighting it, are major sources of flash points. A common consensus to denounce terror ant to prevent its use as an alternative to war is the need of the time. Indian Prime Minster Narendra has recently shown a lot of gravitation towards this direction, however, any worthwhile movement will happen only if major powers too realise it.
Fourthly, increasing reliance on the “soft power” such as economic prowess, trade and market sharing and use of psychological dimensions vis a vis hard power is a good trend. Even while the countries in question enhance their military prowess, they may not be viewed as threat to others. This though is fraught with the realities of economic slowdown and major economies may not be able to fund initiatives or dole out freebies to resurrect the developing ones, yet hopes are high that market needs will creates bonds stronger than what security needs can do. Concurrently, associations such as Eurasian Economic Union, BIMSTEC, Collective Security Treaty Organisation, etc need to be patronised and strengthened. Perhaps, Russia moving closer to China, India having good relations with China as well as USA and possibility of Russia and Japan getting closer are some manifestations of how soft power can resolve real or perceived conflicts and even obliterate bad notes from histories.
Fifthly, Middle East and Near East and North Africa have had a tough play of poor human development index. As a result, demographic imbalances so caused need to be addressed. Radicalisation emanating from Saudi Arabia and some mishandled military operations have led to rise in militancy to uncontrollable levels. US and Russia have to be persuaded to work towards resolving this menace rather than multiplying it. A stable polity in Morocco, Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Syria and Jordon coupled with appropriate attitude towards Israel and Iran is likely to manage the situation, though in long run.
Sixthly, a joint regional and global vision is necessary. With the current leadership that exists and the one emerging, does not offer great hopes. Yet, major powers such as Russia and US may see the sense in it. Russia is more affected and better poised. In conjunction with India and Iran, Russia can take an initiative to make this region more stable. Trigger reduction between adversarial powers needs to be neatly worked out.
Challenges faced by the world can be successfully managed. The need of the time is few global leaders showing capacity and commitment towards the peace. Demolishing existing structures of confrontation and preventing emergence of the new ones has to become our business whether they relate to families, societies, nations, regions or world. In a nutshell, we have to practice conflict avoidance and resolution.
The author has honours in history from Hindu College Delhi and specialized in strategic and regional affairs. She can be reached at [email protected]
From the print edition of 11-17 Jan 2017.
